4 Comments
Aug 18, 2021Liked by Jeff Burke

"Space is almost a perfect vacuum. The air is more pure than even the most expensive, sophisticated clean rooms on earth."

Can you elaborate on this? I know there are gases and some dust in space. I haven't heard that it also has air (O2, N, etc.) as we typically understand the term.

Expand full comment
author

Hi Tim! Thank you for reading! I think technically you're right. I believe it would just be Hydrogen and Helium. I would not proclaim to be an expert by any means. In this case, I supposed I used "air" flippantly (and maybe recklessly) to enable the comparison to a clean room!

Expand full comment

SpaceX has already proven it can vertically integrate ridesharing for various sat launchers. They are experts in reuseability, so what exactly makes you believe the risk of SpaceX verticalizing Varda's logistics approach? Seems to me that launch logistics operations is not a huge barrier to entry, esp. for a launch provider. Varda's main value prop is the hardware/infrastructure for manufacturing, and if they prove it viable, there's practically nothing stopping launch providers from crowding them out. What am I missing?

Expand full comment
author

Great question! SpaceX is focused on two things in my mind. First, they are focused on pushing the bounds of launch efficiency & frequency, likely with Mars as the long-term plan. Second, they are focused on Starlink. Allocating resources to building manufacturing pods & processes would be a diversion of resources for them.

I would not discount how difficult it will be to prove the space manufacturing concept. They will have to create the market. The pods themselves will be fairly complex. They may only do 1-2 manufacturing steps (e.g., apply heat), but that does not mean it is simple. They will need to be a very efficient balance of weight for non-product (pod itself, machinery) and product (raw materials and output) while also considering quality (e.g., can it return to earth safely).

In order to prove this, it will take A LOT of capital and work. Launching currently is shaping out to be an oligopoly. For that reason, I would think it will be far more efficient for SpaceX's business to focus on their primary objective, while charging a premium to Varda Space for launching. If Varda proves the concept and builds the market, SpaceX could easily acquire it and bank the synergies.

Expand full comment